AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST.
GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS
EVENING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD. SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
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