It’s Omar!
OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY...
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
Synopsis from the Netherlands Antilles Met Office:
Synopsis: Tropical depression Fifteen has been ugraded to tropical storm Omar this morning. The center of tropical storm Omar was located near latitude 14.0 degrees North and 69.0 degrees West or about 355 miles South Southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico. Omar is moving now toward the East Southeast near 2 miles per hour. A gradual turn to the East and then to the Northeast is forecast for later today, with a slow increase in speed. Considering the actual motion and development of the storm the federal governement of the Netherlands Antilles will consider to issue later this afternoon a tropical storm watch for the islands of Saba, St. Maarten and St. Eustatius. However, the local community and authorities must continue preparations for the effects of the storm. A forecast for further strengthening of this system within the next 24 hours remains a possibility.
Considering the actual forecast track Omar will now pass East of Puerto Rico and over the US Virgin islands. Because of the proximity of the Storm to the SSS islands at that time. Our islands will experience starting Tuesday night showery weather and thunderstorms with strong possible gusty winds, which could at times reach near gale force from Southerly directions. Street flooding especially over low terrain remains a possibility, mudslides can occur on hilly terrain.
Marine conditions:
Seas over the Caribbean waters are being stirred up by this tropical storm, so expect swells from the South to affect the local waters during the next few days. High surf will affect all South facing coasts and this will cause significant beach erosion during the coming days. All vessels should be moored properly or positioned in sheltered waters. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all the Caribbean offshore waters and passages, until further notice. A small craft warning may be posted on Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday as the system progresses to the North.
The NHC discussion has Omar very close to us in 48 hours.
initial 14/1500z 14.0n 69.0w 35 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 14.7n 68.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 15.8n 67.3w 55 kt
36hr VT 16/0000z 17.3n 65.6w 60 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 19.1n 63.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 17/1200z 23.8n 60.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 18/1200z 28.0n 58.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 19/1200z 33.0n 55.0w 65 kt
SXM is 18.1 N, 63.1 W
this is getting too close for comfort!
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