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Tropical Depression #15...It's Omar now and getting closer
Posted by: Tabba Khady (Moderator)
Date: October 13, 2008 08:28PM

St Martin French side went officially under "Yellow vigilance code" this afternoon in regard of TD#15...
The storm should pass about 135 mile north of the island in category 1 within 69 hours. Similar to Lenny in 1999, the storm is coming from the West, the Caribbeans and not the East, the Atlantic... Heeeere we gooooo agaaaaain....

Kind Regards,


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/14/2008 12:03PM by Barbara1.

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Re: Tropical Depression #15
Posted by: Barbara1 (Moderator)
Date: October 13, 2008 08:37PM

I just sent you some info on that and asked for a translation. Anguilla also is under a tropical storm watch and I suspect the Dutch sdie will have a watch issued tomorrow.
I suspect we will be in for some nasty weather.

Here is a press release from GIS from the Dutch side:

News Release

Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at;

For Immediate Release: Monday, October 13, 2008/N166

Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness says to exercise caution during possible localized flooding conditions

GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) – Tropical Depression #15 formed on Monday morning 500 miles Southwest of St. Maarten at 11.00am.

Wind speeds are 35 miles per hour gusting to 45 miles per hour. The system is expected to become a Tropical Storm within the next 24 hours and will be named Omar.

Based on the forecast track and intensity at 11.00am on Monday, the system will pass to the West of the island. Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate as the system gets closer to the island.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to blow temporarily over the island, but the main threat is expected to be heavy rainfall starting as early as Tuesday.

Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through at least Wednesday.

The Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness (ODMP) is advising the public to monitor the system very closely during the next 24-36 hours and be prepared to exercise a level of caution due to the possibility of localized flooding in low lying areas (for example, Zagersgut, Cul de Sac Basin and Dutch Quarter), known to be prone to flooding, from heavy rains.

Motorists while driving should exercise caution during heavy rainfall.

Residents living in hill side areas should be vigilant for rock falls due to heavy rains.

Roddy Heyliger

St. Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)

and if you look at this tracking map, SXM is still in the could come even closer.


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/13/2008 08:40PM by Barbara1.

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Re: Tropical Depression #15
Posted by: LBI2SXM (
Date: October 13, 2008 09:33PM

Wow! I remember wrong way Lenny. We were in the BVI when he hit. Although there was not much damage there, I could not believe my eyes when I saw the damage that was done in SXM. Be safe all you wonderful people in SXM!

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Re: Tropical Depression's getting closer
Posted by: Barbara1 (Moderator)
Date: October 14, 2008 12:02PM

It’s Omar!


Synopsis from the Netherlands Antilles Met Office:

Synopsis: Tropical depression Fifteen has been ugraded to tropical storm Omar this morning. The center of tropical storm Omar was located near latitude 14.0 degrees North and 69.0 degrees West or about 355 miles South Southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico. Omar is moving now toward the East Southeast near 2 miles per hour. A gradual turn to the East and then to the Northeast is forecast for later today, with a slow increase in speed. Considering the actual motion and development of the storm the federal governement of the Netherlands Antilles will consider to issue later this afternoon a tropical storm watch for the islands of Saba, St. Maarten and St. Eustatius. However, the local community and authorities must continue preparations for the effects of the storm. A forecast for further strengthening of this system within the next 24 hours remains a possibility.
Considering the actual forecast track Omar will now pass East of Puerto Rico and over the US Virgin islands. Because of the proximity of the Storm to the SSS islands at that time. Our islands will experience starting Tuesday night showery weather and thunderstorms with strong possible gusty winds, which could at times reach near gale force from Southerly directions. Street flooding especially over low terrain remains a possibility, mudslides can occur on hilly terrain.
Marine conditions:
Seas over the Caribbean waters are being stirred up by this tropical storm, so expect swells from the South to affect the local waters during the next few days. High surf will affect all South facing coasts and this will cause significant beach erosion during the coming days. All vessels should be moored properly or positioned in sheltered waters. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all the Caribbean offshore waters and passages, until further notice. A small craft warning may be posted on Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday as the system progresses to the North.
The NHC discussion has Omar very close to us in 48 hours.
initial 14/1500z 14.0n 69.0w 35 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 14.7n 68.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 15.8n 67.3w 55 kt
36hr VT 16/0000z 17.3n 65.6w 60 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 19.1n 63.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 17/1200z 23.8n 60.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 18/1200z 28.0n 58.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 19/1200z 33.0n 55.0w 65 kt

SXM is 18.1 N, 63.1 W
this is getting too close for comfort!


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Re: Tropical Depression #15...It's Omar now and getting closer
Posted by: RicknGrace (170.61.20.---)
Date: October 14, 2008 12:38PM

Another Lefty? Unbelievable !!!! Good luck to all and stay safe

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Re: Tropical Depression #15...It's Omar now and getting closer
Posted by: jimandi (206.253.153.---)
Date: October 14, 2008 02:26PM

We will watch here closely. STAY SAFE MY FRIENDS.

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